Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast.
Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
Thursday was a hot day with maximum temperatures of 37.9 Degrees Celsius at the Perth Metro station!This ended the long spell without 35+ Degree Days.
The long spell without 35+ Degree days is the longest on record for January and February for the Mount Lawley site by a significant margin as the BOM had already tweeted that 23 days is a record and this is 31 days!
The west coast trough moved offshore back with gusty easterly winds overnight,gusts in excess of 65 km/h expected over the hills and foothills in the early hours and morning as has so far already occured.
The west coast trough moves inland on Friday morning.Maximum temperatures are expected to occur slightly before noon with the arrival of the sea breeze and cloud cover limiting temperatures during the afternoon.
Middle to high level clouds move in from afternoon ahead of an upper/middle level disturbance/trough,likely bringing elevated showers and the slight chance of thunderstorms.Much of the precipitation will be virga but there is a slight to medium chance of reaching the ground.The ECMWF has jumped on board with precipitation over the metropolitan area.
Marine layer clouds likely on Saturday with the very slight chance of drizzle during the early hours and morning.
The west coast trough remains inland during the weekend resulting in mild conditions.
On Monday with the west coast trough inland,southerly pressure gradient "bends" with solar heating leading to strong sea breezes during the afternoon and evening.Wind gusts up to 60 km/h possible the afternoon and evening over coastal and riverside suburbs.
The synoptic conditions next week depends on a tropical weather system expected to lie over the northern part of the State.Large uncertainty with wide variation between ensemble members.
The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,the next 40+ Degree Day will be at least the latest during summer as the 2005-2006 summer.
The rest of Friday February 16:
City:
24-36 Degrees Celsius
Possible PM showers or thunderstorms.
Chance of any rain:30%
Rainfall amount:0 to 1 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
A mostly sunny morning,some high clouds,becoming cloudy from afternoon.A slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon until night,clearing by late at night.Winds easterly at 20-30 km/h becoming light in the morning becoming west-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h from around the middle of the day becoming light at night.Wind gusts in excess of 65 km/h over the hills and foothills in the early hours.
Perth metropolitan area:
Saturday February 17:
City:
19-28 Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:10%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.The very slight chance of drizzle in the early hours and morning.Light winds becoming southwesterly at 15-25 km/h becoming light at night.
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunday February 18:
City:
18-29 Degrees Celsius
Sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunny.Light winds becoming southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming south-southwesterly at 10-25 km/h night.
Perth metropolitan area:
Monday February 19:
City:
18-30 Degrees Celsius
Sunny.Breezy in the afternoon and evening.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunny.Winds southerly at 15-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 25-40 km/h between afternoon to early night.Wind gusts up to 60 km/h possible in the afternoon and evening over coastal and riverside suburbs.
Perth metropolitan area:
Tuesday February 20:
City:
18-31 Degrees Celsius
Sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Mostly sunny.Winds south to southeasterly at 15-25 km/h.
Perth metropolitan area:
Wednesday February 21:
City:
17-30 Degrees Celsius
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Mostly sunny.Winds southeasterly at 15-25 km/h,tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday February 22:
Perth metropolitan area:
Thursday February 22:
City:
19-30 Degrees Celsius
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain:5%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Mostly sunny.Winds south to southeasterly at 15-25 km/h.
Forecast for today produced at 1:00 AM,forecast for the rest of the days produced at 5:00 PM Thursday February 15.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
