Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:30 PM Friday February 23

Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:30 PM Friday February 23:

Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast. 

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at  12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 2.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 07:00 UTC(3 PM local time yesterday).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 06 UTC(2 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Low clouds to the south clearing with subsidence.

The west coast trough deepens near the west coast on Saturday leading to some warm air advection however,moist air over the northwest of the state will limit how hot it will be.The moist soils mean 850 hPa temperatures of around only 15 Degrees Celsius yielding maximum temperatures of around 32 Degrees Celsius.

The high chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with a deepening west coast trough and associated low level wind convergence with upper level divergence as well ahead of an upper/middle level trough/disturbance clearing by late afternoon as the west coast trough and hence low level wind convergence moves inland.

Cooler air mass lies over the region on Monday.Moist low level air means there could still be plenty of clouds.The slight chance of "anticyclone gloom" as predicted by ECMWF 00Z but not by other models and model runs which could lead to light showers or drizzle.

A weak cold front possibly brushes the region early on Tuesday but precipitation is likely to be confined to coastal suburbs.Cloud cover in the morning clears by afternoon as a subtropical high pressure ridge dtrengthens to the south.

Rapidly warning and drying conditions thereafter with a subtropical high pressure system to the south and a west coast trough forming near the west coast leading to some warm air advection.

The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,this summer will have no 40+ Degrees Day the first since the 2001-2002 summer!

The rest of Friday February 23:

City:

Clear.

Chance of any rain:0%

Perth metropolitan area:

Clear other than a few clouds in the south clearing by sunset.Winds south-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h increasing to 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming east-southeasterly at night.

Saturday February 24:

City:

15-32 Degrees Celsius

Sunny,clouds increasing later.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny,a few clouds from late afternoon.Winds east-southeasterly at 15-30 km/h becoming easterly at 20-30 km/h in the morning easing to 15-25 km/h in the afternoon

Sunday February 25:

City:

20-28 Degrees Celsius

Showers and thunderstorms clearing later.

Chance of any rain:80%

Amount:2 to 12 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A high(80%) chance of a showers and thunderstorms clearing by evening.Winds east to northeasterly at 15-25 km/h becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20 km/h from late afternoon becoming southerly by evening.

Monday February 26:

City:

19-25 Degrees Celsius

Partly to mostly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:20%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of light showers or drizzle.Winds south-southwesterly at 10-20 km/h becoming southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h at night.

Tuesday February 27:

City:

14-25 Degrees Celsius

Clouds clearing.

Chance of any rain:10%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy becoming sunny by afternoon.A slight(20%) chance of showers in the early hours over coastal suburbs.Winds south-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening.


Wednesday February 28:

City:

14-30 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday March 1:

City:

19-33 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds easterly at 15-25 km/h becoming light from afternoon.

Friday March 2:

City:

20-32 Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:10%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.Winds easterly at 15-25 km/h becoming south-southwesterly at 10-20 km/h from afternoon.

Forecast produced at 5:30 PM Friday February 23.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.