Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast.
Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 06 UTC(2 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
Marine layer clouds lied over the region this morning but cleared as the marine layer eroded slightly with solar heating.
The marine layer remains over the region until it erodes a little this afternoon.
The southerly pressure gradient "bended" with solar heating having resulted in strong sea breezes with wind gusts up to 69 km/h having occurred at Ocean Reef!59 km/h at Melville Waters.
Clouds return during the early hours of Tuesday with a layer of very high relative humidity at around the 900 hPa level.
The clouds clear by afternoon with solar heating.
Currently it looks like somewhat east-southeasterly pressure gradient from Tuesday,sea breezes in the afternoon and evening though not as strong as on Monday with weaker pressure gradients.The west coast trough remains inland.
The sea breeze is not likely to reach the hills on Tuesday.
With a more eastern track of what would be Ex Tropical Cyclone Kelvin than previously expected,little to no clouds are expected on Wednesday and Friday,with only a little cloud possible on Thursday.
Some uncertainty on the precise synoptic conditions late next week.It is likely that the west coast trough will deepen near the west coast resulting in warm air advection.However,how hot the air mass will be is limited by moist air over the northwest of the state caused by Tropical Cyclone Kelvin.
The slight chance of elevated convection with an upper/middle level trough/disturbance possibly within the vicinity of the region but plenty of uncertainty.
The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,the next 40+ Degree Day will be at least the latest on record during summer for the Perth Metro station or if there is no 40+ Degree Day at all this summer the first since the 2001-2002 summer.
The marine layer remains over the region until it erodes a little this afternoon.
The southerly pressure gradient "bended" with solar heating having resulted in strong sea breezes with wind gusts up to 69 km/h having occurred at Ocean Reef!59 km/h at Melville Waters.
Clouds return during the early hours of Tuesday with a layer of very high relative humidity at around the 900 hPa level.
The clouds clear by afternoon with solar heating.
Currently it looks like somewhat east-southeasterly pressure gradient from Tuesday,sea breezes in the afternoon and evening though not as strong as on Monday with weaker pressure gradients.The west coast trough remains inland.
The sea breeze is not likely to reach the hills on Tuesday.
With a more eastern track of what would be Ex Tropical Cyclone Kelvin than previously expected,little to no clouds are expected on Wednesday and Friday,with only a little cloud possible on Thursday.
Some uncertainty on the precise synoptic conditions late next week.It is likely that the west coast trough will deepen near the west coast resulting in warm air advection.However,how hot the air mass will be is limited by moist air over the northwest of the state caused by Tropical Cyclone Kelvin.
The slight chance of elevated convection with an upper/middle level trough/disturbance possibly within the vicinity of the region but plenty of uncertainty.
The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,the next 40+ Degree Day will be at least the latest on record during summer for the Perth Metro station or if there is no 40+ Degree Day at all this summer the first since the 2001-2002 summer.
The rest of Monday February 19:
City:
Clear.Wind easing.
Chance of any rain:0%
Perth metropolitan area:
Clear.Winds south-southwesterly at 30-45 km/h between afternoon to early night becoming south-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h at night.Wind gusts up to 60 km/h until early night.
Perth metropolitan area:
Tuesday February 20:
City:
17-30 Degrees Celsius
AM clouds.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy becoming sunny by afternoon.Winds southeasterly at 15-30 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening except over the hills.
Perth metropolitan area:
Wednesday February 21:
City:
15-29 Degrees Celsius
Sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 15-25 km/h becoming southwesterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening becoming light at night.
Thursday February 22:
18-31 Degrees Celsius
Perth metropolitan area:
Thursday February 22:
City:
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Mostly sunny.Light winds becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h from afternoon easing to 10-20 km/h at night.
Friday February 23:
Perth metropolitan area:
Friday February 23:
City:
19-31 Degrees Celsius
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain:0%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.Winds southeasterly to southwesterly at 20-30 km/h.
Saturday February 24:
Perth metropolitan area:
Saturday February 24:
City:
18-33 Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:5%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.Winds easterly at 20-30 km/h.
Sunday February 25:
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunday February 25:
City:
19-31 Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:20%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm.Winds east-northeasterly at 20-30 km/h becoming westerly at 15-25 km/h becoming light at night.
Monday February 26:
Perth metropolitan area:
Monday February 26:
City:
20-31 Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:10%
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.Light winds becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h from afternoon.
Forecast produced at 6:00 PM Monday February 19.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
