Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Saturday February 24

Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Saturday February 24:

Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast. 

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at  06 UTC(2 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 2.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 07:00 UTC(3 PM local time today).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 06 UTC(2 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Warm air mass lied over the region today with the west coast trough deepening off the west coast.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight and persist until Sunday afternoon with a deepening west coast trough and associated low level wind convergence with upper level divergence as well ahead of an upper/middle level trough/disturbance clearing by late afternoon as the west coast trough and hence low level wind convergence moves inland.

Plenty of instability with CAPE being predicted by models.

The Altocumulus Castellanus clouds present for the past few hours indicates middle level instability.

Cooler air mass lies over the region on Monday.Moist low level air means there will still be plenty of clouds.The  chance of "anticyclone gloom" as predicted by ECMWF 00Z which could lead to light showers or drizzle. but not by other models and model runs.

A weak cold front possibly brushes the region early on Tuesday but precipitation is likely to be confined to coastal suburbs.Cloud cover in the morning clears by afternoon as a subtropical high pressure ridge dtrengthens to the south.

Rapidly warming and drying conditions thereafter with a subtropical high pressure system to the south and a west coast trough forming near the west coast leading to some warm air advection.

The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,this summer will have no 40+ Degrees Day the first since the 2001-2002 summer!

The rest of Saturday February 24:

City:

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:10%

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.Winds easterly at around 15-25 km/h in the afternoon

Sunday February 25:

City:

21-29 Degrees Celsius

Showers and thunderstorms clearing later.

Chance of any rain:80%

Amount:3 to 13 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A high(80%) chance of a showers and thunderstorms clearing by late afternoon.Winds east to northeasterly at 15-25 km/h becoming light in the afternoon becoming south-southwesterly at 10-20 km/h at night becoming southerly later at night.

Monday February 26:

City:

19-24 Degrees Celsius

Possible shower.

Chance of any rain:30%

Amount:0 to 0.4 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers or drizzle.The chance of a thunderstorm in the north in the early hours.Winds south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h becoming southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h at night.

Tuesday February 27:

City:

14-25 Degrees Celsius

Clouds clearing.

Chance of any rain:20%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly cloudy becoming sunny by afternoon.A slight(20%) chance of showers in the early hours most likely over coastal suburbs.Winds south-southeasterly at 10-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening.


Wednesday February 28:

City:

14-30 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h tending southerly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday March 1:

City:

19-33 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny.Winds easterly at 15-25 km/h becoming light from afternoon.

Friday March 2:

City:

20-31 Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:20%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm.Light winds becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h from afternoon becoming south-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h at night.


Saturday March 3:

City:

19-32 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:10%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 15-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast produced at 5:00 PM Saturday February 24.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.