Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 8:00 PM Sunday February 25

Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 8:00 PM Sunday February 25:

Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast. 

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at  12 UTC(8 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 2.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 07:00 UTC(3 PM local time today).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 12 UTC(8 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

A sea breeze over the region from late morning had triggered sea breeze thunderstorms which affected eastern suburbs and the hills.Intense elevated thunderstorms also affected southern suburbs this morning.Wind gusts of up to 130 km/h was recorded at Garden Island with the thunderstorms which was the highest at that station for at least several years.

With moist low level air and some instability the chance of elevated showers and thunderstorms again overnight with low level wind convergence at around the 850 hPa level and condensation possible from around 850 hPa level releasing latent heat leading to thunderstorm development in the unstable atmosphere.

ECMWF 00Z predicts these elevated showers and thunderstorms but not other models.The 12Z sounding will offer hints at which model is more trustworthy as the main difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the dew point at 850 hPa level.

Cooler air mass lies over the region from Monday morning.Moist low level air means there will still be plenty of clouds.

A weak cold front brushes the region on Monday night/early on Tuesday but precipitation bringing the slight chance of showers most likely over coastal suburbs.Cloud cover in the morning clears by afternoon as a subtropical high pressure ridge strengthens to the south.

Rapidly warming and drying conditions thereafter with a subtropical high pressure system to the south and a west coast trough forming near the west coast leading to some warm air advection.

The west coast trough moves inland from Thursday afternoon with strong sea breezes expected on Friday in the afternoon and evening as the southerly pressure gradient "bends" with solar heating.

The long spell with no 40+ Degree Days continues with the last 40+ Degree Day being Australia Day last year!With no 40+ Degree day within the forecast period,this summer will have no 40+ Degrees Day the first since the 2001-2002 summer!

The rest of Sunday February 25:

City:

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:5%

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.Winds south-southwesterly at 10-20 km/h at night becoming southerly later at night.

Monday February 26:

City:

19-24 Degrees Celsius

Possible early shower or thunderstorm.

Chance of any rain:30%

Amount:0 to 1 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early hours and early morning.A slight(30%) chance of a shower at night.Winds south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h becoming southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming south-southwesterly at night.

Tuesday February 27:

City:

14-25 Degrees Celsius

Clouds clearing.

Chance of any rain:20%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy becoming sunny by afternoon.A slight(20%) chance of showers in the early hours most likely over coastal suburbs.Winds south-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening.


Wednesday February 28:

City:

15-30 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h tending southerly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening becoming light at night.

Thursday March 1:

City:

19-32 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny.A slight(20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the hills,a near zero chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon.

Friday March 2:

City:

18-28 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny..Winds southerly at 15-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 25-40 km/h in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday March 3:

City:

16-30 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h tending southeasterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening.


Sunday March 4:

City:

16-31 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds easterly at 20-30 km/h tending 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast produced at 8:00 PM Sunday February 25.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.