Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Thursday May 24

Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Thursday May 24
Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast. 

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 2.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for destructive winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for evening and night.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for more information.

Figure 3.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 06:00 UTC(2 PM local time yesterday).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 4.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 5:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Unusually warm weather occurred today as in previous days with a warm air mass over the region.

At night a strong cold front moves across the region ending the warm dry spell.Also some thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

The cold front will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms with 1000 J/kg CAPE ahead of the front in the evening predicted by the ECMWF model.With very strong winds aloft(120+ km/h at 850 hPa level),destructive winds are possible with thunderstorms,even the chance of tornadoes and waterspouts with high vertical wind shear.Wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h possible.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for destructive winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for evening and night.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for more information.

On Friday deep cold air mass lies over the region with 500 hPa temps down to -24 Degrees Celsius with atmospheric instability,leading to the possibility of small hail and thunderstorms most likely in the south.

On Saturday remnant post cold frontal showers easing as the subsidence inversion heights lwoer.

On Sunday another,but much weaker cold front brushes the region bringing showers again.But the slight chance of thunderstorms with some instability with moist low level air.

Improving conditions from Monday with a high pressure system strengthening to the southeast.

Another cold front likely moves over the region on Thursday.

The rest of Thursday May 24:

City:

Becoming windy with showers and thunderstorms,possibly heavy.

Chance of any rain:100%

Severe weather warning in effect!See note!

Perth metropolitan area:

Cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from evening.Heavy rainfall and damaging winds possible with thunderstorms.Winds north-northwesterly at 20-30 km/h increasing to 30-50 km/h in the evening becoming west-northwesterly late at night.Wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h possible at night.

Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for destructive winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for evening and night.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for more information.

Friday May 25:

City:

12-19 Degrees Celsius

Windy with showers.Possible thunderstorms.

Chance of any rain:100%

Amount:10 to 25 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of showers easing from afternoon.The chance of thunderstorms and/or small hail.Winds west-northwesterly at 30-45 km/h.Gusts in excess of 80 km/h possible,90 km/h in the far southwest at night.

Saturday May 26:

City:

12-20 Degrees Celsius

Showers easing.

Chance of any rain:90%

Amount:1 to 5 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly cloudy.A very high(90%) chance of showers easing to a medium(40%) chance from late morning.Winds west-southwesterly at 25-40 km/h easing to 20-30 km/h in the morning becoming light at night.

Sunday May 27:

City:

13-22 Degrees Celsius

Showers.

Chance of any rain:90%

Amount:4 to 15 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(90%) chance of showers.The chance of a thunderstorm.Winds westerly at 20-30 km/h.

Monday May 28:

City:

10-19 Degrees Celsius

Possible AM shower or two.

Chance of any rain:40%

Amount:0 to 1 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.A medium(40%) chance of showers in the early hours and morning.Winds west-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h.

Tuesday May 29:

City:

7-21 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:10%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny.Light winds.

Wednesday May 30:

City:

8-24 Degrees Celsius

Sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Sunny.Winds northeasterly at 15-25 km/h.

Thursday May 31:

City:

12-22 Degrees Celsius

Showers.Possible thunderstorm.

Chance of any rain:80%

Amount:1 to 5 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.A high(80%) chance of showers.The chance of thunderstorms.Winds northwesterly at 20-30 km/h shifting southwesterly later.

Forecast for today produced at 11:45 PM Monday May 7,forecast for the rest of the days produced at 5:00 PM Monday May 7.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.