Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Sunday July 1

Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 5:00 PM Sunday July 1
Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast. 

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at 06 UTC(2 PM local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 2.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall,damaging winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west and southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.

Figure 3.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 06:00 UTC(2 PM local time today).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 4.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 06 UTC(2 PM 
local time today).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

Warm air  mass lies over the region.

Some virga likely for the rest of today with plenty of moisture aloft ahead of an upper level trough resulting in plenty of middle and high level clouds but dry air below.

Plenty of rainfall likely on Monday with a rainband associated with a cold front ahead of an upper level trough interacting with tropical moisture.Strong gusty winds are likely,with gusts in excess of 90 km/h possible especially near the coast.Whether or not strong gusts occur near the surface depends on how precipitation could push stronger winds aloft to the surface.If these don't occur then it may not be windy over inland coastal plain.Currently ECMWF guidance shows 80+ km/h winds at 950 hPa level which could be dragged down to the surface by precipitation.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall,damaging winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west and southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.



Westerly flow on Tuesday results in showers,another cold frontal passage on Wednesday with deep cold air mass over the region thereafter,bringing the possibility of thunderstorms and/or small hail.

The rest of Sunday July 1:

City:

Cloudy.

Chance of any rain:10%

Perth metropolitan area:

Cloudy.Winds northerly at 10-25 km/h.

Monday July 2:

City:

14-19 Degrees Celsius

Windy with rain,showers,possible heavy.
Severe weather warning in effect!See note!

Chance of any rain:100%

Amount:15 to 35 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of rain and showers.Heavy falls possible.Winds north-northwesterly at 25-40 km/h strengthening to 30-50 km/h from morning becoming northwesterly at 25-40 km/h from evening becoming west-northwesterly at 20-30 km/h later at night.Gusts in excess of 90 km/h possible especially near the coast.

Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall,damaging winds and abnormally high tides for parts of the west and southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.

Tuesday July 3:

City:

14-18 Degrees Celsius

Showers.

Chance of any rain:90%

Amount:1 to 4 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(90%) chance of showers.Winds westerly at 20-35 km/h.

Wednesday July 4:

City:

11-17 Degrees Celsius

Windy with showers.

Chance of any rain:100%

Amount:4 to 12 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of showers.The chance of a thunderstorm and/or small hail from evening.Winds west-northwesterly at 25-40 km/h becoming westerly at 35-55 km/h in the afternoon becoming southwesterly at 30-40 km/h at night.Gusty winds likely.

Thursday July 5:

City:

8-16 Degrees Celsius

Showers.

Chance of any rain:90%

Amount:1 to 4 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(90%) chance of showers.The chance of a thunderstorm and/or small hail early.Winds southwesterly at 20-30 km/h.Gusty winds possible.

Friday July 6:

City:

6-17 Degrees Celsius

Possible shower or two.

Chance of any rain:40%

Amount:0 to 1 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A medium(40%) chance of showers.Light winds.

Saturday July 7:

City:

6-17 Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Partly cloudy.Winds east-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h.

Sunday July 8:

City:

6-17 Degrees Celsius

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain:0%

Amount:0 mm.

Perth metropolitan area:

Mostly sunny.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h.

Forecast for today produced at 11:45 PM Monday May 7,forecast for the rest of the days produced at 5:00 PM Monday May 7.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.