Explanatory notes:
Currently at 11 AM land breeze lies over the region due to rain cooled air accumulating over land.
This air is fairly stable thus limiting the potential of thunderstorms with the showers mainly being affection type.
Thunderstorm risk increases if and once the more unstable air offshore moves onshore.High resolution nested model, ACCESS-CITY suggests that these more unstable air will not move onshore with winds remaining nort-northeasterly.h
The cut off low brings showers and with the upper level cold pool over the region, also possible thunderstorms and/or small hail. 500 hPa temperatures below -26 Degrees Celsius are indicative of the cold pool aloft.