Current(Perth Metro)



Radar



Saturday, 27 February 2021

7 day weather forecast

 Effective as of 4:00 PM Saturday February 27 2021

Explanatory notes:

An upper level disturbance stalls to the west of Perth early next week with a moist and unstable atmosphere leading to showers and thunderstorms.

Steering flow would be from the north-northeast.

Still some uncertainty on the details on the showers and thunderstorms and the severe thunderstorm threat but latest model guidance suggests surface based thunderstorms and severe threat most likely (among the days of the episode) on Tuesday and Wednesday with the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values in excess of 1000 J/kg in the ECMWF model for Wednesday along with dew points of around 18C and moderate vertical wind shear but uncertainty remains this far out. Intensity of thunderstorms also dependent upon the development of earlier convection and middle level cloud limiting solar heating.

Convection on Monday more likely to be the elevated type with some stratiform precipitation also possible with more marginal instability.

Maximum temperatures during Monday to Thursday dependent upon the timing of convection and also extent of cloud cover.

The upper level disturbance lies to the east by Friday.
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Saturday February 27:
City:
17-31  Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:0%
Amount:Nil



Perth Metropolitan Area:
​Partly cloudy.Winds east-southeasterly at 15-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon.

Sunday February 28:
City:
18-31  Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:10%
Amount:Nil



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly cloudy.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h possibly tending south-southwesterly over coastal surburbs in the afternoon.

Monday March 1:
City:
18-26  Degrees Celsius
Showers.Possible late thunderstorm.
Chance of any rain:70%
Amount:4 to 15 mm



Perth Metropolitan Area:
​​​Partly to mostly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thudnerstorm from evening.Winds east-southeasterly at 20-30 km/h.​

Tuesday March 2:
City:
18-30  Degrees Celsius
Showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of any rain:60%
Amount:0 to 6 mm



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly to mostly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms.Winds easetrly at 20-30 km/h tending northeasterly in the afternoon.Stronger winds possible with thunderstorms.

Wednesday March 3:
City:
20-29  Degrees Celsius
Showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of any rain:70%
Amount:2 to 10 mm



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly to mostly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms.Winds northeasterly at 20-30 km/h becoming light ans variable in the afternoon, butstrong winds possible with thunderstorms.

Thursday March 4:
City:
19-28  Degrees Celsius
Possible shower or thunderstorm.
Chance of any rain:40%
Amount:0 to 3 mm



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly cloudy.A medium(40%) chance of showers and/or thunderstorms.Winds northeasterly at 10-20 km/h shifting westerly later during the day.

Friday March 5:
City:
18-28  Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:20%
Amount:Nil



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of a shower.Light winds tending southwesterly at 10-20 km/h during the afternoon.

Saturday March 5:
City:
19-29  Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain:10%
Amount:Nil



Perth Metropolitan Area:
Partly cloudy.Light winds tending southwesterly at 10-20 km/h during the afternoon.













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Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
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Figure 2.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 06:00 UTC(2 PM local time yesterday).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).






















































































































































































































































































































































































































































Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 12 UTC(8 PM 




local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM)



























































































































































































Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).














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