7 day weather forecast

 Effective as of 4:00 AM Wednesday March 3 2021

Explanatory notes:

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​The upper level disturbance lies to the west stalled by an upper level ridge over central Australia.

Yesterday, thunderstorms formed to the north with solar heating and instability buildup with a steep vertical lapse rate with 500 hPa temperatures down to -13°C associated with the upper level disturbance

Large hail was recorded near Sorrento.

Rain, showers and thunderstorms expected today ahead of the upper level disturbance, the thunderstorms currently aren't expected to be as intense due to more stratified precipitation and cloud cover limiting low level temperatures and thus instability and also warming mid level temperatures with 500 hPa temperatures warming to -9°C by afternoon in the ECMWF model but there could be significant rainfall accumulations due to an unusually moist atmosphere with dew points in excess of 20°C possible. Strong gusts are also possible with thunderstorms with strong winds aloft.

Maximum temperatures depend upon the extent of cloud cover and precipitation.

It continues to be unusually humid during the weekend with plenty of low clouds despite a ridge of high pressure building to the south, this is due to the moist soils from the earlier rain.

 

Wednesday March 3:

City:

20-25  Degrees Celsius

Rain, showers and thunderstorms.

Chance of any rain:100%

Amount:15 to 25 mm

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of rain, showers and thunderstorms. Winds east-northeasterly at 20-30 km/h.

Thursday March 4:

City:

19-27  Degrees Celsius

Showers and thunderstorm.

Chance of any rain:60%

Amount:0 to 5 mm

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms.Winds northeasterly at 10-20 km/h shifting westerly from early afternoon.

Friday March 5:

City:

19-26  Degrees Celsius

Possible shower.

Chance of any rain:30%

Amount:0 to 1 mm

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers..Light winds tending west-southwesterly at 10-20 km/h during the afternoon.

Saturday March 6:

City:

18-27  Degrees Celsius

Partly to mostly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:10%

Amount:Nil

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly to mostly cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of a shower.Light winds tending southwesterly at 10-20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sunday March 7:

City:

18-30  Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:Nil

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly cloudy.Winds east-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h during the afternoon.

Monday March 8:

City:

19-32  Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:Nil

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly cloudy.Winds easterly at 20-30 km/h tending east-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon.

Tuesday March 9:

City:

20-33  Degrees Celsius

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain:5%

Amount:Nil

Perth Metropolitan Area:

Partly cloudy.Winds east-northeasterly at 20-30 km/h becoming northeasterly and light in the afternoon.

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Cha

                                   

Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).

 2. 

Figure 2.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 06:00 UTC(2 PM local time yesterday).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).

Figure 3.Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) analysis with infrared greyscale satellite image at 12 UTC(8 PM 

local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM)

Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).