Effective as of 4:00 PM Monday May 17 2021
Explanatory notes:
It was a warm afternoon today with the warm air mass over the region. Possible showers and thunderstorms for the rest of today in the vicinity of a surface trough and ahead of an upper level trough with a moist and unstable atmosphere with steep vertical lapse rates and moist low level air with dew points as high as 19°C and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values in excess of 2000 J/kg possible.
Further showers expected tomorrow with the chance of thunderstorms with the surface trough and moisture and instability remaining over the region.
Ridge of high pressure likely builds to the south from Wednesday leading to improving conditions with a west coast trough deepening near the west coast thereafter.
Possible fog early tomorrow and on Wednesday depending on cloud cover with moist low level air and moist soils from rain.
A significant cold front moves over the region on Saturday with a cold and unstable air mass in its wake.