Effective as of 4:00 PM Saturday November 6 2021
View the latest severe weather warnings from BOM at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ .
Explanatory notes:
Stratocumulus clouds today cleared to the east during the afternoon today as the sea breeze front moved inland. Tomorrow some high and middle level clouds ahead of an upper level trough.A strong sea breeze is likely as the southeasterly pressure gradient "bends" with solar heating with the west coast trough inland.
On Monday, the possibility of showers and thunderstorms with an unstable atmosphere with steep vertical lapse rates ahead of an upper level disturbance. Most likely surface based in the afternoon with solar heating, most likely inland of the sea breeze front, then elevated showers and thunderstorms possible thereafter as the upper level trough interacts with the moisture lifted by the earlier surface convection. Still plenty of uncertainty on this as usual with this sort of scenario.
A rainband with embedded showers and thunderstorms develops near the region, more likely to the north overnight Monday night into Tuesday. Some uncertainty on how far south this feature will extend into hence only a medium chance of precipitation in the forecast at this stage, most likely over northern suburbs.
Fine conditions from Tuesday evening as the upper level disturbance moves to the east with fine conditions continuing through the end of the forecast period with subtropical high pressure to the south.